MVP Awards: A More Predictable Market for Sports Bettors 

Shocks happen in sports. There are numerous examples from the past – and quite a few from the present – from Leicester City’s famous Premier League title win in 2016 at odds of +50000 (five thousand to one!) to having the most recent Super Bowl played between two teams, the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks, that were +8000  and +6500 respectively. 

All sports fans know that unpredictability is inherent in the game, and sports bettors know it all too well, sometimes painfully so. It’s in the genetic makeup of sports that, on occasion, shocks happen, making a mockery of all the statistics and expert opinion that have preceded the event. 

Yet, not all sports betting markets are shocking. Or at least, we can say that some sports betting markets have shocks with much less regularity than others. Often, those markets are exterior to the game, such as betting on MVP markets and major awards. 

NBA MVP betting rarely shocks 

A case in point is found when you bet on the NBA MVP markets. You are rarely going to see a major shock. Throughout history, there have been a few – Steve Nash in 2005, Derrick Rose (20011) – but it usually boils down to a few star performers, and you can usually make an educated guess about which way the market is turning. 

The key point is that an MVP market is led by voting, usually by accredited members of the sports media. Technically, they are not supposed to say how they intend to vote, but, you know, they often do. Bill Simmons regularly talks about how he votes, and he even discusses the wider process behind it. There are even websites dedicated to publishing databases to track MVP votes. 

If it sounds like there may be a catch, it’s because there is. Sportsbooks aren’t stupid, and they aren’t going to provide massive odds for a player to win an award when every single reporter is talking about how they are going to vote for that player. Yet, the key aspect is that it’s a matter of timing. And that means backing the market when it starts to look clear the player will get the MVP and hitting a sweet spot before the odds get too short. 

Ballon d’Or odds could move this summer 

If we can provide another example, it would be the Ballon d’Or, soccer’s version of a global MVP.  That award will be announced later in the year, but it’s relatively tight at the moment. Harry Kane of England and Bayern Munich has started to pull away from a few others, such as Michael Olise, Declan Rice and Lamine Yamal. That’s all normal, but we would be keeping an eye on the World Cup in the summer – there’s no event like it for soccer players to stake a claim. If someone like Olise stars for France, you can be sure the market moves in his favor. 

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All of this does not state that there isn’t a risk. You’d be pretty sick had you backed LeBron James for the MVP award in 2011, only to see him lose out to teammate Derrick Rose. But the market is much more static than the sports games market. Put it this way: Atletico Madrid could win the Champions League this season, and it would be a shock. But you couldn’t even find odds for the team’s captain, Koke, to win the Ballon d’Or this season, so remote are his chances.  The key is simple: If you can find the consensus pick at the right odds, it’s a much more stable market.