MLB Picks & Best Bets Today (Aug 23): Expert Predictions, Props & Odds

MLB Predictions Today: Sunday’s Schedule & Slate Overview

Sunday’s MLB schedule offers several strong spots for bettors, including a couple of interesting totals. The MLB best bets today are led by Los Angeles, with Toronto providing the higher-risk alternative. The Dodgers have the most complete statistical case on the slate, while the Blue Jays offer a more speculative path based on starting pitching rather than overall team strength.

Top Moneyline Picks & MLB Best Bets Sunday

Los Angeles Dodgers over Pittsburgh Pirates

The best bet of the day is Dodgers over Pirates. The Dodgers-Pirates game is the strongest overall matchup from a prediction standpoint. Los Angeles was 77-51 with a +145 run differential, a .260 team batting average, a .765 OPS, and a 3.70 team ERA. They also have the stronger overall pitching staff. Snell has allowed only two earned runs in his last 12 innings and has struck out 15 over that span. Mlodzinski has gone in the opposite direction, posting a 14.04 ERA across his last three appearances. He has allowed 20 hits and 13 earned runs in only 8.3 innings during that stretch. Best bets. Moneyline: Dodgers (-297) | Pirates (+231) Computer Moneyline Pick: Dodgers over the Pirates.

San Diego Padres over Minnesota Twins

Pick: Padres Moneyline -135. Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler does own a 4.79 ERA this season, but has a 4.22 fielding independent with only one home run per nine innings allowed and seems to be rounding into form, with three earned runs or fewer allowed in each of his past six starts. They face Twins starting pitcher Bailey Ober, who has a 4.65 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed and a career-low 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Best bets. Moneyline: Padres (-142) | Twins (+117) Computer Moneyline Pick: Padres over the Twins.

Seattle Mariners over Chicago Cubs

Pick: Mariners Moneyline -105. Mariners starting pitcher Bryce Miller owns a 3.71 ERA and 3.95 fielding independent with 1.5 home runs per nine innings allowed, but also has 8.7 strikeouts and 1.8 walks per nine innings while carrying massive home and road splits, with a 2.09 ERA at home compared to a 4.94 ERA away from home. Cubs starting pitcher Shota Imanaga has a 3.77 ERA, but his 4.54 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed points toward regression.

The Upset Angle: Toronto Blue Jays over New York Yankees

Toronto provides the most interesting upset angle against the Yankees. Soriano has a 3.23 ERA overall, 2.96 on the road, and 2.70 over his last three. Toronto has also won all three of Soriano’s listed starts since he joined the club. The Yankees remain the stronger team overall, which is why Toronto belongs in the upset category rather than among the top plays.

Arizona Diamondbacks over Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -126 and Over 8.5 Runs. While the Diamondbacks are without their leader in home runs, Ketel Marte, they should be able to get to Reds starting pitcher Andrew Abbott, who has a 4.07 ERA but a higher 4.64 fielding independent with seven strikeouts and 4.3 walks per nine innings, while the Reds bullpen is 25th in ERA at 4.54.

Baseball Odds Today: Best Over/Under Totals

Cardinals vs. Phillies (Over 7.5 Runs)

Pick: Cardinals vs. Phillies Over 7.5 Runs. Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy has a 3.24 ERA… but has large home and road splits, with a 2.91 ERA and 0.3 home runs per nine innings allowed at home while supplying a 3.61 road ERA with 1.6 home runs per nine innings allowed. He is supported by a bullpen that is 22nd in ERA at 4.30, but the Cardinals are fourth in road run production with 5.1 runs per game and have to try to get to Phillies starting pitcher Cristopher Sánchez, who owns a 2.52 ERA overall with 0.7 home runs allowed and 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings this season.

Angels vs. Rangers (Under)

The best total is Angels-Rangers Under. The recent trends are unusually strong. Los Angeles is 2-8 O/U over its last 10 games and Texas is 1-9 O/U. The Angels-Rangers matchup points toward the Under based on recent trends and starting pitching.

Nationals vs. Marlins (Over 8 Runs)

Pick: Nationals vs. Marlins Over 8 Runs. Nationals starting pitcher Jackson Kent is making his third career start, having allowed eight runs in 7 2/3 innings with eight walks issued while being supported by a bullpen that ranks 27th in ERA at 4.81. Though the Nationals lineup is banged up, the team still leads the league in scoring with over 5.2 runs per game and faces starting pitcher Janson Junk, who pitches to a lot of contact with only 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings and a 4.37 ERA overall.

MLB Prop Bets Today: Top Player Props & Home Run Predictions

Home Run Predictions for Sunday, August 23

• Shohei Ohtani To Hit A Home Run (+210). Comfortably the shortest home run price on today’s entire slate, at home against Pittsburgh, well ahead of teammate Max Muncy on this same board.
  
• Fernando Tatis Jr. To Hit A Home Run (+280). Tied with teammate Byron Buxton for the top price on this board, at home against Minnesota. Either Padre is a reasonable lean, but Tatis carries the slightly bigger name recognition at an identical number.
  
• Cal Raleigh To Hit A Home Run (+280). The top-priced Mariner at home against the Cubs, comfortably ahead of Pete Crow-Armstrong and Julio Rodriguez on this same board.
  
• Pete Alonso To Hit A Home Run (+285). The top-priced Oriole at home against Tampa Bay, edging out Junior Caminero and Coby Mayo on this same market.
  
• Jo Adell To Hit A Home Run (+285). The top-priced Guardian on the road against Colorado, ahead of Jose Ramirez and Chase DeLauter on this same board.
  

Best MLB Hit & RBI Props Today

• Shohei Ohtani To Record An RBI (+110). Pittsburgh Pirates at Los Angeles Dodgers (Sun, 4:11 p.m. ET)
  
• Jo Adell To Record An RBI (-125). The single shortest RBI price on the entire board today — the only negative-odds RBI market anywhere on this slate, on the road at Coors Field.
  
• Yandy Diaz To Record A Hit (-360). The shortest hit price on the entire board today, on the road against Baltimore, well ahead of teammate Junior Caminero on this same market.
  
• Fernando Tatis Jr. To Record A Hit (-360). Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres (Sun, 4:11 p.m. ET)
  
• Otto Lopez To Record A Hit (-310). Washington Nationals at Miami Marlins (Sun, 1:41 p.m. ET)
  

Sunday’s MLB Computer Picks & Additional Moneylines

• Best bets. Moneyline: Phillies (-223) | Cardinals (+179) Computer Moneyline Pick: Phillies over the Cardinals.
  
• Best bets. Moneyline: Red Sox (-220) | Giants (+184) Computer Moneyline Pick: Red Sox over the Giants.
  
• Best bets. Moneyline: Brewers (-134) | Braves (+110) Computer Moneyline Pick: Brewers over the Braves.
  
• Best bets. Moneyline: Marlins (-164) | Nationals (+134) Computer Moneyline Pick: Marlins over the Nationals.
  
• Pick: Orioles Moneyline +105 and Over 8.5 Runs. Orioles starting pitcher Shane Baz has pitched better than his 4.03 ERA would indicate, as he has a 3.33 fielding independent with only 0.7 home runs per nine innings allowed and a 3.34 ERA and 2.76 fielding independent in his past 16 starts, allowing three earned runs or fewer in 14 of those 16 starts.