The Stagnation of Traditional NFL Betting
The American Gaming Association (AGA) expects National Football League (NFL) betting handle to remain virtually flat this season as prediction markets capture a growing share of Americans’ wagering dollars. The 2026 season marks the first year with no growth.
According to the AGA, Americans are estimated to legally wager $29.5 billion on the NFL via regulated sportsbooks this season. The AGA projects little growth from last season’s $29.4 billion handle. The sports betting industry underperformed last year’s estimate by about $600 million.
Prediction Markets: The New Competitor
Prediction markets have emerged as a source of significant market competition. Prediction market outlets routinely argue that they do not offer sports betting services; however, their sports event contracts represent about 80% of the business of the top operators.
Most states that have legal sports betting require bettors to be at least 21 years old, though a few permit 18+. Prediction markets are 18+ nationwide. Prediction traders below the legal sports betting age in most states risked over $5 billion as of Sept. 1.
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The Regulatory Clash and “Backdoor Sports Betting”
AGA president and CEO Bill Miller attributes the slowdown to prediction markets. The fight over U.S. prediction markets has reached a new level of institutional confrontation.
Appearing before the Senate Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Technology, and Data Privacy on May 20, 2026, Miller said prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are running “backdoor sports betting operations”. Miller said such products “undermine the work and expertise of 8,400 industry regulators, consumer protections embedded in state and tribal law, and the will of voters across the country”.
“These products function as sports betting in every meaningful sense,” Miller testified. “Consumers are betting money on the outcome of sporting events and player performances. Sports betting is being repackaged as a financial product bypassing the consumer protections, responsible gaming standards, and the state and tribal regulatory systems”.
The AGA CEO called the CFTC a “rogue agency” and accused it of making a “mockery of congressional intent” by allowing financial exchanges to facilitate this activity. “The CFTC was created to regulate markets critical to the functioning of the nation’s economy, not to regulate ‘Monday Night Football,'” Miller told lawmakers, arguing the agency is reclassifying gambling as financial swaps.
The Structural Differences: Sportsbooks vs. Exchanges
Former House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry and other industry supporters contend prediction markets hold to higher standards than casinos, including mandatory KYC/AML compliance.
“In a sportsbook, the house sets the odds and profits when customers lose,” McHenry testified. “In a prediction market exchange, participants trade with one another, while the platform earns transaction fees for facilitating the market. As a result, the incentives are fundamentally different”.
For brokers and infrastructure providers watching from the B2B side, the real issue is the federal preemption doctrine—the principle that a CFTC license shields a firm from having to comply with 50 different state-level regimes.
What Lies Ahead for the Industry
While sports betting may not be poised for the growth to which it had become accustomed, Kalshi, Polymarket, and other operators are dealing with potential legal hurdles. Several recent court results have gone against the prediction industry, including decisions to deny preliminary injunctions against state gaming enforcement officials and to limit the authority of federally regulated prediction markets.
States are spending “extraordinary amounts of money” to push the CFTC out of a space where, in their view, it has no legal standing. Whether that argument lands in court will determine not just the rules for prediction markets in 2026, but whether the regulatory foundation under the whole sector is solid at all.
Sources: Casino.org, Sports Betting Dime, Covers, and TradingView.
Leo Falsafi is a digital marketing veteran and senior journalist at Virlan.co, where he covers the intersection of digital marketing, gaming, and breaking US trending news. With nearly two decades of hands-on experience in SEO and digital strategy, Leo has consulted for and scaled hundreds of companies. His deep industry roots allow him to deliver sharp, fact-checked insights and analysis on the trends shaping today's digital landscape.