The 2026 Men’s US Open Landscape: Sinner’s Absence & Alcaraz’s Return
The 146th iteration of the US Open gets underway at the iconic Flushing Meadows venue on Sunday, August 23rd, 2026. With the tournament played on the fast Laykold surface, weather conditions are calling for temperatures in the 80s to begin the week, with rain expected by midweek. But the true early tournament shake-ups lie in the draw itself.
The men’s draw has been turned completely upside down. For the record, this 2026 edition is being played without the man who would likely have been the bookmakers’ overwhelming favorite: world No. 1 Jannik Sinner. His withdrawal has reshuffled the deck, most notably gifting 29-year-old Alexander Zverev the number one overall seeding.
Meanwhile, all eyes are on defending 2025 US Open champion Carlos Alcaraz. Alcaraz returns to Flushing Meadows making his first competitive appearance in more than four months after recovering from a nagging wrist injury.
Men’s Outright Favorites and Betting Odds
Despite his lengthy physical layoff, oddsmakers refuse to fade the defending champion.
- Carlos Alcaraz (5-2 Odds / ~25-32% Implied Probability): Alcaraz was afforded a paltry 11% win probability back on August 5th, but those odds surged to 27% immediately upon announcing his return on August 21st. Trading around 5-2 at Paddy Power, he remains the consensus bookmaker favorite to defend his title, sitting slightly ahead of Zverev.
- Alexander Zverev (11-4 Odds / ~20-21% Implied Probability): Zverev has enjoyed a definitive breakthrough year in 2026, capturing his maiden Grand Slam title at Roland Garros before falling to Sinner in the Wimbledon final. With Sinner out, Zverev’s number one seeding guarantees him a relatively favorable draw. His probability surged post-Sinner withdrawal, making him a prime positive Expected Value (EV) pick at 11-4 odds.
- Novak Djokovic (7-1 Odds / ~9-10% Implied Probability): At 39 years old, the Serbian legend remains a massively underpriced force on hard courts. The numbers do not lie: Djokovic boasts an 82.5% career win rate on hard courts and has reached the semi-finals in six of the seven Slams contested since January 2025, including last year’s US Open. Crucially, Sinner’s absence bumps Djokovic up to the fourth seed.
Top Men’s Underdogs, Dark Horses, and American Hopefuls
With the top of the board showing vulnerability due to injuries and layoffs, the middle tier presents incredible betting opportunities.
American contenders Taylor Fritz and Ben Shelton are both carrying strong backing. Fritz is priced as an 11-1 shot with roughly a 6% probability of keeping the trophy on home soil, while Shelton is available to back at 12-1.
In the international underdog tier, Rafael Jodar and Arthur Fils are highly credible outsiders. Both are hovering at around a 5% win probability, with odds sitting around 11-1 to 12-1. Fils’ stock has risen to the point where tennis legend Boris Becker recently defended the young Frenchman, publicly comparing his ceiling to Alcaraz and Sinner by declaring: “If the French don’t want him, we’ll give him a German passport”. Further down the board, Felix Auger-Aliassime closes out the realistic dark horse list with a 2% chance.
Women’s Outright Favorites: Aiming for History
On the women’s side, the narrative centers heavily on the defending 2025 champion, Aryna Sabalenka, and her quest for historical dominance.
Aryna Sabalenka: A Hard Court Powerhouse
- Aryna Sabalenka (+225 to +350 / 22% Implied Probability): Sabalenka is aiming to become just the third woman to win three successive US Open crowns during the Open Era. Although her market narrowed slightly since January (when she sat at a massive 51% chance after reaching the 2026 Australian Open final), she is undeniably a hard-court powerhouse. The 28-year-old holds a blistering 34-6 (85%) career record at the US Open and has won exactly 90% of her hard-court matches so far in 2026. She is the clear betting favorite.
The Value Chasers: Swiatek, Gauff, and Pegula
- Iga Swiatek (+550 to +800 / 16% Implied Probability): While frequently mislabeled by some traders as strictly a clay-court specialist, Swiatek is consistently undervalued on hard courts. The 2022 US Open champion retains an elite 24-6 (80%) win-rate at Flushing Meadows and sits comfortably as a top secondary favorite behind Sabalenka.
- Coco Gauff (+550 to +700): The American superstar remains a major home-soil threat and closely mirrors Swiatek in the outright betting markets.
- Jessica Pegula (+1200) & Elena Rybakina (+800): Pegula presents an excellent longer-odds option at +1200, while Rybakina hovers right alongside the favorites at +800. Further down the board, former champion Naomi Osaka and rising star Mirra Andreeva can both be found with +1000 odds.
Expert Daily Picks and Matchup Strategy
When navigating the daily markets, bettors must factor in the Laykold surface. Because it tends to play fast, targeting big servers early in the tournament—before the expected midweek rain alters the court speeds—will be critical.
From a futures perspective, targeting Alexander Zverev at 11-4 represents a highly positive EV strategy given the massive opening in his draw provided by the Sinner withdrawal. Alternatively, Carlos Alcaraz’s wrist injury makes him a volatile favorite. While his undeniable talent warrants the 5-2 price tag, his lack of competitive match preparation over the last four months forces bettors to decide if they trust his physical resilience over the grueling two-week, best-of-five-sets format.
Sources: Covers.com, Casino.org, TennisTemple.com, VegasInsider, Oddschecker, and Racing Post.
Max Newman is Deputy Editor and Data Strategy at Virlan.