Chiefs Betting Guide: Best Futures Bets for the 2025-26 NFL Season

What are the best bets for the Chiefs in the 2025-26 season?

Our ultimate betting guide answers that question by analyzing every angle of Kansas City’s futures market. Get the latest odds on Patrick Mahomes MVP, Travis Kelce props, and the Chiefs’ chances to win the AFC West. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to the game, this guide has everything you need.

Chiefs Betting Guide: A Strategic Portfolio for the 2025-26 NFL Season

The 2025-26 Chiefs Futures Portfolio

The Kansas City Chiefs, a franchise that has appeared in the last three Super Bowls and won two of them ¹, enter the 2025-26 NFL season in a unique position in the futures market. Despite their recent dynastic run, which includes three Super Bowl victories in the last seven seasons and five straight AFC Championship Game appearances ², the Chiefs are not the consensus favorites to win either the AFC or the Super Bowl.

This is a direct consequence of what has been termed “market fatigue,” a collective skepticism that has priced Kansas City as the third or fourth-best contender behind the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.² This market skepticism presents a nuanced opportunity for the discerning bettor. The prevailing narrative is that the Chiefs’ 2024 season, a 15-2 campaign, was statistically anomalous, buoyed by a record-tying 11-0 record in one-score games.³ The betting market has priced in a regression to the mean for these close contests, offering odds that might not fully account for the fundamental excellence of the quarterback-coach combination of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, who have an established history of winning close games.⁵

A strategic betting card for the Chiefs in 2025-26 should not be viewed as a single play but as a portfolio of bets, each with its own risk profile and return potential. The following recommendations provide a tiered approach to building this portfolio, combining high-confidence foundational plays with high-risk, high-reward opportunities that exploit specific market narratives.

Bet Type	Best Available Odds	Rationale Summary	Confidence Level
Win AFC West	-115 2	Kansas City has won nine consecutive division titles, and their rivals remain a tier below them.	High
Over 11.5 Regular Season Wins	+100 11	Patrick Mahomes has consistently led the team to at least 11 wins, a trend that is likely to continue with an improved offense.	High
Patrick Mahomes MVP	+650 12	A bet on the Chiefs’ offense returning to elite form with a healthier and deeper cast of playmakers.	Medium
Travis Kelce Under 700.5 Receiving Yards	-105 5	Anticipates a strategic reduction in Kelce’s target share as a more dynamic group of skill players emerges.	Medium

The following report provides a comprehensive analysis of the team’s position in the futures market, individual player props, and a breakdown of the roster and coaching staff that informs these recommendations.

The Dynasty’s Edge: Chiefs’ Position in the Futures Market

Super Bowl and Conference Contention: The Value of the Underdog

Despite their recent success, the Chiefs are not the consensus favorites to win Super Bowl 60. The Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds are listed at +850 across multiple sportsbooks.² Some computer rankings place them fifth, while sportsbooks are slightly more optimistic, placing them fourth.³ This places them behind the Philadelphia Eagles, Buffalo Bills, and Baltimore Ravens.² These odds translate to an implied probability of 10.5% ², a lower figure than what might be expected for a team with their pedigree.

Similarly, the Chiefs are positioned as the third favorite to win the AFC Championship. Their AFC odds vary from +400 to +500, consistently placing them behind the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.⁴ This represents a significant deviation from recent history, where Kansas City has been a perpetual force, reaching seven consecutive AFC Championship Games and winning five of them.² The market’s hesitance is rooted in the belief that the Chiefs’ 2024 season, with a 15-2 record, was driven by an unsustainable level of success in close games. They finished the season with an unprecedented 11-0 record in one-possession games, an NFL record they tied with the 2022 Minnesota Vikings.³ This statistical anomaly is a central pillar of the argument for market regression, suggesting that such luck will eventually run out. However, what some view as luck, others attribute to the unique ability of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes to perform at a high level in critical moments, a skill they have demonstrated consistently throughout their partnership.⁵ This discrepancy between the market’s perception and the team’s historical clutch performance creates a compelling value proposition for a bet on their continued success.

AFC West Supremacy: A Lock or a Lull?

The Kansas City Chiefs are the overwhelming favorites to win their division for the tenth straight season.² Their odds to win the AFC West are tightly clustered around -115 across several major sportsbooks.² This makes them a strong divisional bet. The market’s respect for the Chiefs’ division rivals, the Denver Broncos (+250) and Los Angeles Chargers (+360), is demonstrated by the fact that the Chiefs’ odds are not a heavier favorite (e.g., -250 or more).⁹ While the Chiefs have won 46 of their last 54 AFC West games, the price suggests that the market gives their rivals a non-trivial chance to dethrone them, making this a lower-value proposition than it might appear on the surface.⁹

Regular Season Win Total Breakdown

The most popular regular-season win total for the Chiefs is O/U 11.5, with some books offering an alternative of 10.5 wins.² An expert analysis recommends a bet on the Over 10.5 wins at a price of -170 ⁵ and the Over 11.5 wins at a price of +100.¹¹ This recommendation is grounded in the Chiefs’ historical performance under Patrick Mahomes, who has led the team to at least 11 wins in every season he has been the starter.⁵

The primary argument against this bet is the aforementioned statistical regression to the mean after the Chiefs’ remarkable 2024 season, where they won 11 games by one possession.³ The team’s schedule is also ranked as the seventh-hardest in the NFL.¹⁰ However, this perspective overlooks the strategic improvements made in the offseason. The Chiefs’ offense was noted as “mediocre” last season ⁵, but the team’s free agency and draft moves were designed to directly address the weaknesses that contributed to those close games—a struggling offensive line and a lack of reliable pass-catchers.⁷ The return to health of key players and the strategic additions are expected to lead to more dominant performances, potentially mitigating the “regression” argument.⁵ A look at the Chiefs’ recent win totals provides crucial historical context:

Year	Vegas Win Total	Result	Actual Wins	Finish
2024	11.5	Over	15	L, Super Bowl 3
2023	11.5	Under	11	W, Super Bowl 7
2022	10.5	Over	14	W, Super Bowl 7
2021	12.5	Under	12	L, AFC Championship 7
2020	11.5	Over	14	L, Super Bowl 7

This table demonstrates a consistent pattern of the Chiefs either meeting or exceeding their projected win totals, making a strong case that their sustained success is a product of fundamental team strength rather than statistical luck.

The Mahomes Effect: Player Props and Award Bets

Patrick Mahomes MVP Outlook: A Narrative-Driven Value Play

Patrick Mahomes enters the 2025-26 season with MVP odds ranging from +650 to +700 ¹², placing him as the third or fourth favorite behind Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen.¹³ An MVP bet is as much about a compelling narrative as it is about statistical production. Mahomes’ 2024 season saw a dip in his passing statistics, with 3,928 yards and 26 touchdowns, which caused his odds to lengthen.³ This is a departure from his previous MVP seasons in 2018 and 2022, where he led the league in passing touchdowns and yards with 50 and 41 TDs, respectively, and over 5,000 passing yards in both seasons.¹²

The Chiefs’ offense was hobbled by injuries to skill players and poor pass protection last season, forcing Mahomes to rely on short passes and check-downs.⁷ This season, however, the offense is expected to be much healthier and more dynamic.⁵ With a healthier Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and the emergence of second-year wide receiver Xavier Worthy, speed will be a significant factor for Kansas City’s offense.¹⁷ Rashee Rice will also be returning from a six-game suspension, further diversifying the receiving corps.⁷ This infusion of talent, combined with improvements to the offensive line, creates a clear pathway for Mahomes to return to his elite statistical form. A bet on Mahomes for MVP at his current price is a bet on the Chiefs’ offense reclaiming its explosive, high-scoring identity, which would, in turn, create a powerful narrative of a quarterback single-handedly lifting his team back to the top of the league.

Travis Kelce’s Twilight Value: A Contrarian Bet

Travis Kelce’s season-long receiving yards prop is set at O/U 700.5 yards.⁵ A strong argument can be made for betting the Under on this prop. Kelce is now 35 years old, and while he remains an integral part of the offense, there is a perception that he has lost some of his elite explosiveness.⁵ The Chiefs’ offense is also undergoing a strategic evolution. The team has a more complete and deeper group of pass-catchers than in recent years, with a healthy Brown, an emerging Worthy, and the eventual return of Rice.⁵ The Chiefs also signed fellow tight end Noah Gray to a three-year contract, signaling that they plan to integrate him more into the offense.⁵

While Kelce’s Week 1 prop is a modest O/U 47.5 receiving yards ²⁵, the full season is a different matter. The six-game suspension of Rashee Rice is a critical factor here. While this might lead to an increased target share for Kelce at the start of the season, the long-term plan is to diversify the offense. A bet on the Under 700.5 yards is a sharp bet that anticipates this strategic shift and a potential reduction in Kelce’s overall volume as Rice returns and Worthy’s role solidifies as a top wide receiver.

Offensive Sleepers and Value Props

The Chiefs’ offense offers additional value plays, particularly on individual player props. The six-game suspension of Rashee Rice is the single most important factor for this section.²⁴ It creates an immediate opportunity for Xavier Worthy to establish himself as the team’s top wide receiver. Worthy’s season-long receiving yards prop is set at O/U 900.5 ¹⁷, a number that could be exceeded if he assumes a significant target share from the start of the season. His big-play ability also makes him a strong candidate for Anytime Touchdown props, as evidenced by his favorable odds of +125 in Week 1.²⁴

The Chiefs have also built a deep and versatile running back room, featuring Isiah Pacheco, veteran additions Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell, and rookie Brashard Smith.¹⁷ This depth, which some have called the most balanced Andy Reid has had in Kansas City, suggests a shift towards a running back by committee approach.²⁶ While this might temper expectations for Pacheco’s overall volume, it also creates value in his individual game props, such as his Week 1 receiving yards prop of O/U 9.5 yards.²⁷ This collective investment in offensive weapons is a clear indication that the Chiefs aim to resolve the “mediocrity” that plagued their offense in 2024.⁵

The Defensive Foundation: Futures Beyond the Offense

The Chiefs’ defense has been a formidable unit in recent years, but their sack production experienced a significant decline in 2024, falling from second in the league in 2022 and 2023 to 19th in 2024.²⁹ Defensive end George Karlaftis’s individual sack total also dropped from 10.5 to 8, despite an increase in quarterback pressures.²⁹ This defensive regression was a point of emphasis for the organization during the offseason.²⁹ The team’s response was a clear signal of their commitment to bolstering the defensive line, drafting high-ceiling players like Omarr Norman-Lott and Ashton Gillotte and signing veterans like Jerry Tillery.¹⁷ The team’s confidence in Karlaftis’s potential for a rebound is evidenced by his four-year, $93 million contract extension.²⁹ Karlaftis’s sack prop is set at O/U 8.75 sacks, with equal odds on both sides.³¹ A bet on the Over for this prop is a bet on the ripple effect of the renewed investment in the defensive line. The added depth is expected to free up players like Karlaftis for more one-on-one matchups, leading to a return to double-digit sack production.

Chris Jones, the anchor of the defensive unit, is a compelling longshot bet for Defensive Player of the Year. His odds are listed between +5000 and +6000.³² While a DPOY bet on an interior defensive lineman is always a longshot, Jones is one of the few players at his position with the capacity to have a narrative-shifting season. The added depth on the defensive line, particularly from draft picks like Omarr Norman-Lott and Ashton Gillotte ³⁰, could create more opportunities for Jones to dominate one-on-one matchups, leading to a legendary statistical performance that could put him in the conversation for the award. This represents a classic high-risk, high-reward play.

Foundational Analysis: Roster, Coaching, and Trends

Offseason Roster Moves

The Chiefs’ offseason moves signal a clear and focused strategy: to stabilize the offensive line and add versatile, veteran depth at key positions. On offense, they added quarterbacks Gardner Minshew and Bailey Zappe, running backs Kareem Hunt and Elijah Mitchell, and offensive tackle Jaylon Moore.¹⁷ Their investment in the running back position, in particular, is a low-risk, high-upside strategy. Both Hunt and Mitchell are on one-year “prove-it” deals ³⁴, providing depth and competition for Isiah Pacheco without a long-term financial commitment. The Chiefs also lost key players, including safety Justin Reid, wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins and Justin Watson, and defensive tackle Tershawn Wharton.¹⁷ The new additions, coupled with a return to health for key players like Marquise Brown, are expected to significantly boost the offense.¹⁷

The 2025 NFL Draft Class

The Chiefs’ 2025 draft class has been widely praised, with some analysts giving it an “A” grade.¹ The team’s top selections included Josh Simmons (OT), Omarr Norman-Lott (DT), Ashton Gillotte (EDGE), and Nohl Williams (CB).³⁰ This draft class is a microcosm of the Chiefs’ overall drafting philosophy under General Manager Brett Veach: a willingness to take calculated risks on high-ceiling players who fit their scheme perfectly.¹ For example, first-round pick Josh Simmons, a “potential home run,” had no blown blocks in pass protection in his final collegiate season, despite carrying injury risk that caused him to fall in the draft.³⁰ Similarly, Omarr Norman-Lott was a career backup, but his high pressure rate on a small sample size was enough to intrigue the team.³⁰ This focus on elite potential and scheme fit, rather than safe selections, is a key reason for the team’s sustained success and a factor that should be considered by any futures bettor.

Historical Betting Trends

While the Chiefs are a consistently winning team, they have been a poor bet against the spread (ATS) in recent seasons, going 7-10 ATS last season.³ They are a particularly rotten bet as heavy favorites, holding a 9-15-2 ATS record with a line of -6 or more over the past three seasons.¹¹ This trend is a direct result of their status as a dynasty, which inflates lines and reduces betting value. The public’s consistent support for the Chiefs as a favorite can be exploited by the savvy bettor. The most profitable strategy for betting on the Chiefs has been to back them as a point spread underdog. Since Patrick Mahomes took over as the starter, the Chiefs are an exceptional 13-5-1 ATS as an underdog, including postseason games.¹¹ Their schedule for the 2025-26 season has only one projected underdog spot: a Week 9 game at the Buffalo Bills, where they are listed as +2.5 underdogs.³

Conclusion: Final Recommendations and Strategy

A comprehensive futures portfolio on the Kansas City Chiefs for the 2025-26 season should be built on a tiered foundation, combining high-confidence plays with strategic, risk-adjusted bets.

• The Anchor Bet: The most reliable play is on the Chiefs to win the AFC West. With nine consecutive division titles, the team’s dominance is well-established, and the odds, while not offering a massive payout, provide a strong return for a high-probability event.² Similarly, the Chiefs to go Over their win total of 10.5 or 11.5 is a foundational bet, as Patrick Mahomes has never led a team to fewer than 11 wins in his career as a starter.⁵
• The Value Play: The market’s skepticism about Patrick Mahomes’ MVP candidacy presents an excellent value opportunity. The Chiefs’ offense, with its new additions and a return to health for key players, is poised for a significant rebound. A bet on Mahomes to reclaim his elite statistical form is a high-upside play that capitalizes on a market narrative that overlooks the team’s underlying strength.¹²
• The Sharps’ Bet: A more sophisticated, contrarian bet is on Travis Kelce to go Under 700.5 receiving yards. This play requires a deep understanding of the team’s evolving offensive strategy and the expected decrease in Kelce’s reliance as the team’s other pass-catchers like Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown emerge.⁵
• The Lottery Ticket: For the investor willing to take a high-risk, high-reward position, a bet on Chris Jones to win Defensive Player of the Year is a classic longshot play. While improbable, the team’s strategic investment in defensive line depth could lead to a narrative-breaking statistical performance for Jones, with a payout of +5000 or more.³²

In all instances, the astute bettor should actively shop around for the best available odds to maximize potential returns, as prices can vary significantly across different sportsbooks.⁷ This is a critical component of a disciplined betting strategy.